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7 Cognitive Biases That Prevent You From Making Good Decisions


A cognitive distortion is like a virus wired into the DNA of our brains. It acts on the sly by influencing your other decisions — whether you choose a product in a store or a partner for a long-term relationship. Even the smartest and most educated people sometimes make foolish conclusions — and this is all due to cognitive errors. The good news is now all of that can be detected and dealt with at ease. This article will cover the seven most common cognitive errors and learn techniques to eliminate these delusions.  


 

What Are Cognitive Biases, And Why Do They Occur?


Cognitive bias is a thinking preference that affects the judgments and decisions that people make.

Since the brain's energy resources are limited, it always tries to follow the least resistant path. Our brain builds "rails" that enable a smooth and straight surface throughout life, through which people can come to their desired conclusion. But the downside of accelerating thinking is overlooking a few mistakes.

Cognitive errors are not always harmful. Psychologists believe that many of them serve as an adaptive goal for survival. 

For instance, if you are walking down a dark alley and notice a dark shadow that seems to be following you, the cognitive distortion will conclude that it is a burglar and that you need to get out of there as soon as possible. A flag fluttering may have just caused the dark shadow in the wall, but relying on mental shortcuts can help you get away from danger in situations where decisions need to be made quickly.

But if you make long-term decisions in a calm environment, cognitive errors can play a trick on you. So it is time that we learn to recognize them and fight them back.


Flashback Effect

The Flashback effect is a common bias that includes the tendency for people to see events, even random ones, and predict them subsequently.

 

In one classic experiment, students were asked to predict how likely Clarence Thomas would be elected to the US Supreme Court. Before the Senate vote, 58% of students had no doubts that Thomas would win. After the elections, scientists again interviewed students, and then 78% said they believed in the election of Thomas.

 

So, this tendency to look back at events and believe that we "knew it all along" is surprisingly common. After the exams, students look at the questions and think, "Of course! I knew it," — even if they missed them altogether in preparation. Investors look back and believe they could predict which companies will dominate the market.

 

When such people predict the next time, they end up with incorrect predictions of random events. So while making decisions, make sure to remind yourself that many things are entirely unpredictable, and we cannot predict them in any way.


Disinformation Effect

Our memories of specific events are strongly influenced by things that have happened after the actual event, and this is called the misinformation effect. A person who has witnessed a car accident or crime believes their memories are crystal clear, but researchers have found that memory is susceptible to even very subtly influences.

In an experiment [ Loftus, E. F, 1989 ], footage of car accident was shown to a bunch of people, and then they were asked slightly different questions, like:

 

  • How fast were the cars going when they hit each other?
  • How fast were the cars going when they crashed into each other?

 

Then a week later, they were asked the same question, but with different wording. The researchers found that this slight change in wording made them remember specific memories they hadn't seen. These people also incorrectly reported that they noticed broken glass in the video when asked for a more negative second option.

 

People subconsciously adjust their memories based on other information received after the event. You probably won't believe it, but this trick is often used by television men when interviewing witnesses with the "memories" they need. Therefore, you should not trust the testimony of only one participant. Analyze as many sources as possible to get an objective picture.

False Consensus Effect

People tend to overestimate how much other people agree with their beliefs, behaviors, and values and this tendency is known as the false consensus effect.

The false consensus effect occurs for several reasons:

 

  • Close people (friends or family) often tend to share very similar opinions and beliefs. As a result, our brain begins to think the way that majority of the people thinks. The consensus effect is still valid when we are with people who are not part of our family and friends.

 

  • Believing that other people are just like us is good for our self-esteem as this enables us to feel "normal" and maintain a positive self-image.

 

  • With the advent of search engines and social networks, we have encapsulated ourselves within information bubbles. We consume the information that the online world wants us to know. Based on that information, we jump to an easy conclusion that everyone else has the same content/opinion.

 

An easy way to combat the false consensus effect is to expand your offline social circle and look for more different online points of view.

Availability Heuristic

After seeing some news stories about car thefts in your area, you may start to believe that such crimes are more common than they are in reality. Consequently, this tendency to estimate the likelihood of events based on how many examples readily come to mind is known as the Heuristic availability. It's essentially a mental bypass designed to save us time when we are trying to identify risk.

 

Very often, this mode of thinking leads us to misjudgment and bad decisions. Smokers who never knew someone was dying from a smoking-related illness may underestimate the health risks. On the contrary, if you have two sisters and five neighbors who have had breast cancer, you can believe that it is even more common than the statistics say.

 

Sometimes all you need to do is dig a little deeper to overcome Heuristic availability. The media are very fond of reporting acts of terrorism, and less often, they write about domestic murders. The avaliability heuristic says the streets are full of terrorists. But by comparing statistics we found that murderers kill 90 times more Americans than terrorists.

Anchor Effect

People tend to overestimate the first information they receive when deciding, and this information is called anchor information. The notorious first impression is also a consequence of this effect. When we meet a person, we first pay attention to his appearance and facial expression. It is these anchors that will largely determine our attitude in the future.

 

However, this is a very dangerous cognitive bias. Physicians, for example, may become susceptible to the anchoring effect when diagnosing patients. The doctor's first impressions of the patient often create a reference point that can misinterpret all subsequent diagnostic evaluations.

 

That is why a good doctor will undoubtedly ask you in detail about all the symptoms, even if he can read them in the medical history. So this allows him to discover specific information that could have been missed in the meeting.

 

Distortion of The Observer/Participant

How we perceive others and how we evaluate their actions can significantly depend on whether we are a participant or an observer. When it comes to our actions, we often tend to attribute things to outside influences. We complain that we ruined a crucial meeting due to jet lag or failed the exam due to the instructor asking many tricky questions.

 

However, when explaining other people's actions, we are more likely to attribute their behavior to internal causes. A colleague ruined an introductory presentation because he was lazy and incompetent (not because he took a long flight). A fellow student failed the test because he lacks diligence and intelligence (not because the teacher asked the same tricky questions) and so forth.

 

To deal with this distortion, you need to remind yourself that each phenomenon usually has several external and internal causes. Make a list of them and analyze each, abstracting from the personality — yourself or another person.

 

Halo Effect

In a classic experiment, the discoverer of this effect, Edward Thorndike, asked officers to rate the various qualities of their soldiers. These characteristics included things like leadership, appearance, intelligence, loyalty, and reliability. He noticed that high scores for one quality overlap with scores for other characteristics. For instance, soldiers with high intelligence were attributed with good looks, etc.

 

Such errors can have a powerful effect in the real world. For example, charming job candidates are more often considered intelligent and competent.

 

Imagine two women are advertising a product on TV. One is well-groomed and confident, while the other one is poorly dressed and mutters under her breath. Which of these ads would most likely prompt you to buy a product? Meanwhile, they are promoting the same product with the same characteristics.

 

So it is crucial to focus on the objective metrics of a person or product so you don't fall under the influence of this cognitive error.

 

Conclusion

Cognitive biases arise from our brains attempting to save time and energy to make quick decisions. There is no doubt that this is sometimes useful for survival situations. However, if you are making a long-term decision, it may lead to an erroneous conclusion. To eliminate cognitive biases, make sure that you learn to notice the factors, analyze the data consciously before you conclude.


And as Always...

Many thanks for reading.

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